photo credit: Shutterstock
Shady stretch of a two-lane road in Sonoma County. 

A new report looks at the economic impact of potential immigration enforcement across the Bay Area. KRCB News speaks with the Bay Area Council Economic Institute about what the report's findings mean specifically for Sonoma County.

Abby Raisz: My name is Abby Raisz. I am the vice president of research at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute.

KRCB News: When we look specifically at Sonoma County, what stands out to you?

Raisz: We chose to do this study focused on the Bay Area because we have the highest share of immigrants of any region in the state. One third of our population here in the Bay Area are immigrants. That is a very high number. When we narrow in on specific counties, Sonoma really stands out because while it has a smaller immigrant population overall, it has very high proportions of undocumented immigrants within that population.

That suggests there is more limited access to legal migration pathways in some of the industries and sectors in places like Sonoma and Napa that are very reliant on immigrant labor. These are rural, agricultural, or service oriented local economies.

When we look at Sonoma County, immigrants are around 17 percent of the overall population. But within that immigrant population, more than 26 percent are undocumented. That is one of the highest shares in the region. Compare that to Santa Clara County, which has a very high share of immigrants because of so many people coming on work visas in the tech sector. But when we look at the undocumented share of that population, it is not even 18 percent.

KRCB News: A lot of families I have spoken with in Sonoma County might have one or two undocumented members, but their children may have documentation. Did you track this in your data?

Raisz: Yes. In Sonoma County, we estimate that there are more than 6,000 mixed status households. We found that for those households, the median income is around $96,000. When you remove the primary undocumented breadwinner, that median household income would be reduced to $26,300. That's a 72.6 percent, almost 73 percent, reduction.

KRCB News: And is that number on par with the rest of the Bay Area?

Raisz: Actually, no. It is one of the highest we saw. That shows that the mixed status households in Sonoma County are very reliant, maybe disproportionately reliant, on that head of household primary earner who is undocumented.

That makes it nearly impossible for a family, even if they are fully legally able to be here and were not detained or deported, because now they have lost their primary source of income. They probably are going to have to leave or make some really big decisions.

You might see transportation affected. They may have to get rid of their vehicle because they cannot afford to keep it. When you do not have a vehicle and you live out in Sonoma County, that is challenging. Maybe you want to pick up more work now because your spouse was undocumented and you are trying to make up that income, but you do not have a car because the household cannot afford it. Everything starts to compound. Ultimately, it will lead to far more people leaving the region.

KRCB News: Now that this report is out and you have crunched all the numbers, what can we do with it? What impact do you hope it has?

Raisz: At the end of the day, regional stability going forward really depends on coordination between local leaders, business leaders, philanthropy, legal services, and attorneys who are helping defend people who have been arrested. All of these groups are working to support family stability. It is that sustained alignment across sectors.

Coming out of the pandemic, it was the first time local leaders were really talking with business leaders and small business owners. Suddenly there was this moment of, “Oh my God, we are all working together,” as everyone tried to deal with unprecedented changes in behavior and people’s ability to go out and patronize businesses.

In a way, that was a silver lining of the pandemic. Coordinated efforts, task forces, and community groups were created that are now positioned well to deal with potential enforcement actions that could affect large swaths of the population.

We are hoping this report gives data to back that up. Here is what we have, here are the stakes, here is what we stand to lose. Leaders should coordinate as much as possible with every entity that can help prevent, or if a large scale raid were to happen, help alleviate the consequences to the best of our abilities.